Founder: Ralston Gernert • Licensed Realtor, Keller Williams Realty
Southern Market Watch LLC identifies undervalued real estate across Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee — combining institutional analysis with Keller Williams–level service.
Ralston Gernert is a licensed Realtor with Keller Williams Realty and founder of Southern Market Watch LLC. He helps clients and investors identify undervalued assets across the Southeast, blending finance‑grade underwriting with real‑world execution.
All case study figures are illustrative placeholders for design purposes. Replace with current underwriting before publication.
As a licensed Keller Williams Realtor, I help buyers and sellers across Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee make financially intelligent decisions — applying the same discipline I use in commercial analysis.
Work With Me (Keller Williams)Cap rates across Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee have widened unevenly the past few quarters as rate volatility met supply constraints. In small‑bay industrial, secondary submarkets in Central Florida and greater Chattanooga are showing the most durable spreads to debt costs thanks to tight vacancy and sticky tenant demand. By contrast, high finish office continues to reprice as lenders require more equity and shorter business plans. For value‑add strategies, the key isn’t simply “buy higher caps,” but to underwrite a credible path to stabilized income: mark‑to‑market rents, converting gross leases to NNN, and trimming controllable expenses. A disciplined buyer stress‑tests exit caps by +50–100 bps and avoids thin deals that only pencil on aggressive rent growth. In practice, we seek transactions that clear a 7% entry cap or have a line‑of‑sight to 9–10% post value‑add. Markets with in‑migration and low replacement cost competition (parts of Polk County, the I‑75 corridor, and select Nashville satellites) remain especially attractive for patient capital.
Start with current income quality, not just pro forma. Verify lease terms, roll schedule, and expense pass‑throughs. If leases are gross, model a phased NNN conversion with realistic tenant communication and minor capex (metering, minor improvements). Underwrite conservative downtime and TI/LC costs to avoid “paper” NOI. Next, benchmark in‑place rents against true market comps by bay size and utility (clear height, power, yard access). We build a 6–12‑month reserve, keep leverage moderate, and stabilize before refinancing. Sensitivity matters: push exit caps by +50–100 bps, and run DSCR at stressed rates to ensure ≥1.35× under downside scenarios. A deal that survives these tests with an unlevered yield of 8–12% is a candidate; if returns rely on perfect execution or speculative rent spikes, we pass. The art is pairing disciplined math with pragmatic on‑site execution and tenant relationships.
(1) Cap Rate: NOI ÷ Price; sanity‑check with market comps. (2) DSCR: NOI ÷ Debt Service; target 1.35×+ at stabilized and stressed rates. (3) Unlevered Yield: NOI ÷ Total Cost; reveals the deal without leverage. (4) Replacement Cost Multiple: Price ÷ Est. Replacement Cost; buying ≤0.6× adds margin of safety. (5) Leverage Ratio: Debt ÷ Value; use conservatively. (6) Lease Roll Exposure: % GLA rolling in 12–24 months; plan capex and downtime. (7) Exit Cap Sensitivity: Basis vs. exit scenarios; model +50–100 bps. Master these, and your underwriting becomes repeatable, testable, and investor‑grade.